Most Anticipated Earnings: IFC-T, MTLO-X and more Canadian Companies Reporting Earnings this Week (Feb 10-14)

Opinion about PSK-T: Second in line behind TPZ for what he'd want to own in terms of O&G royalty companies and infrastructure.

Opinion about CRT.UN-T: 92% of rent comes from Canadian Tire, which in turn owns about 70% of the REIT. Very stable, so not a tremendous amount of growth. About 2% topline growth translates into ~3% on the bottom line, and that's all you can expect. Interesting transactions. Thinks highly of management. Safe distribution, just south…

Opinion about IFC-T: P&C insurance tends to be more counter-cyclical. People tend to rush in when the rest of the market isn't flying. Now a very reasonable valuation. Hang-up for him is the growth outlook. Largest market share in Canada, so has to go to international markets (which are less certain). Very well run.If you…

Opinion about FCR.UN-T: (A Top Pick Oct 31/24, Up 14%) Recession- and tariff-resilient. Very defensive. Lots of growth. Record-high occupancy levels of 97.2%. Renewing leases at 16%, above historical averages. Still lots of good upside.

Opinion about MRG.UN-T: Apartments on both sides of the border. Always trades at wide discount to NAV, a good starting point when you invest. Nice portfolio. Keep holding if you own, but better ideas out there. Nice distribution of 5.5%.

Opinion about SLF-T: Holding onto this one, despite selling MFC due to range-bound performance right now.

Opinion about IAG-T: (A Top Pick Nov 13/20, Up 33%) Has started buying back shares and paying dividends. Financials should do well as the yield curve steepens. Valuation is not as compelling as before. Middle of the pack. Has moved to US banks and non-financial banks in Canada.

Opinion about CHP.UN-T: Really good company. Main tenant is Loblaw. 70% of business is retail, 25% industrial, and some mixed-use residential. Typically trades at a premium because it's defensive, now getting much closer to NAV of ~$15.25. Great balance sheet, solid management. Nice growth. Safe. Yield is 5.3% or thereabouts. 

Opinion about SRU.UN-T: Dividend close to 7%. Very defensive, and so distribution is high. Flipside of being defensive and with high occupancy rates is that growth of 1-1.5% is below inflation. Higher leverage means income doesn't translate to earnings potential. Better opportunities, especially in necessity-based retail.

Opinion about HR.UN-T: Hostile takeover. Diversified REIT that doesn't work very well anymore, as it tends to trade at the multiple of the least-liked sector it owns, and it has a lot of office. If you own, hold on, as today's press release indicated interest from multiple parties (and so a higher bid may come…

Opinion about KMP.UN-T: Very well managed. Company size is in the top 5. Originally focused on the Maritimes, which has seen a lot of population inflows. Expanding into other markets in Ontario such as Kitchener-Waterloo. Likes that they're experienced developers, always improving. Energy-efficient, new construction. Not facing high-rent pressures of others.

Opinion about ERE.UN-T: Doing the right things, but public market is not rewarding it. Selling assets piecemeal until the REIT is liquidated, now about 50%, and distributed income to investors. Hold on, still lots of value. Could buy comfortably here as it's trading below $2.50 per share, but assets arguably are worth $3.

Opinion about MRT.UN-T: Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Trading at high discount to NAV. Significant cash retention compared to peers. Diversified cash flow streams. Bid competition to slow acquisition growth.

Opinion about DRR.UN-T: Focused on assets in US. Has never traded above its IPO price. Pursuing strategic alternatives; if you own it, see how those go.

Opinion about FFH-T: In the defensive part of Canadian financial services. Underwriting profitability consistently getting better, the core reason why stock's been doing better. Opportunity to term out its fixed income portfolio. Not a screaming bargain today, but makes sense as part of a diversified portfolio especially as we pivot away from banks and get…

Opinion about DFY-T: With its growth rate, a good spot to put new money to work.

Opinion about CAR.UN-T: Is stable, with apartments remaining strong with steady rent growth.

Opinion about GSY-T: Merit on the short report? Really great job building out the business, upgrading loan portfolio, adding adjacent businesses. A complicated business, difficult to get a handle on what's going on under the hood, so you have to have a lot of faith in management.Short report highlighted that issue. That's why his firm…

Opinion about TSU-T: Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research TSU has been under pressure over the years due to its asset impairment from a couple years ago, as well as recently a hardening insurance market. The stock has largely traded sideways for a few years, and it trades at a decent…

Opinion about PMZ.UN-T: Why higher implied cap rate than peers? He scratches his head about this too. Likes it here. A bit of concern about shopping malls in general, with their sensitivity to the consumer. From what his team sees, consumers are continuing to spend $$. And it's cold up here, we love our malls.…

Opinion about CGY-T: Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research In Q4 – 2024, CGY reported a revenue growth rate of 3%, with revenues reaching $181M compared to last year’s $175.9M. Adjusted EBITDA margin improved in the quarter to 12.5% from 11.6% last year. Overall, these were acceptable numbers but not that…

Opinion about AI-T: (A Top Pick Mar 11/24, Up 14%) More conservative than TF, and he owns both. Core position. Nice dividend. Not trying to shoot the lights out, just want to collect the income and reinvest.

Opinion about CUP.U-T: Fortis owns 60%. Challenge is that hurricane comes through every once in a while. Good system. Rates of return are higher than you can get in Canada. He owns Fortis

Opinion about FTS-T: Bought on the April dip, but stock hasn't done much. Sell? If you bought in April around $55 and today it's trading ~$72, that's about 10+%. Plus you get a 3-4% dividend yield, with 3-4% dividend growth. Pretty good for a regulated utility, and he's happy to own a company that puts…

Opinion about CVO-T: Good job overall, well run. Exposed to some of the AI trends. Sizable competition for what they do. He's conservative on whether it can differentiate itself in the coming years. Must show it can get the big, multi-year contracts.

Opinion about SHOP-T: He made some nice $$ on it as it reached former peaks. But the stock blew by those and took out old resistance of 2021 highs. That's a breakout, and it's bullish, so nothing wrong with this stock.

Opinion about CMG-T: Spiked up on the close last week. Everything looks really good about this for the long term, everything says you should own some. RSI against S&P since 2022 has been really good, up and to the right. Buy some today with a partial position, then add a second component on a further breakout,…

Opinion about MTLO-X: Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Revenue grew 57% YOY despite soft results in Q4 2021 relative to expectations. A strong second half of 2022 financial year is expected. Holds $8.5M in cash. In talks with Microsoft for a deal. Continues to trade at relatively low valuation. Results…

Opinion about T-T: His firm buys market leaders in sectors that are being positively revalued. Multiple in this sector has been contracting for a long time. Big question is where does revenue come from? Very hard to turn around a stock in a weak sector that's underperforming. If you can't rally in a bull market, what…

Opinion about TIXT-T: It has dropped 90% since its IPO. A buyout from Telus has been proposed so you could hold it until the deal closes for a bit more.

Opinion about DND-T: Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research Plantro has pulled its bid, so it certainly might become a seller. Frankly, the stock has become a bit of a basket case. It has been up for sale. Management has revolved. It buys back stock and then issues stock. But the…

Opinion about TC-T: Sold because its ROIC returns started to get a bit wonky. In fact in last 3 years, ROIC has been negative. Satellite internet access has eaten the lunch of fibre. Hard to form a moat around its domain business. Wait for ROIC to be in excess of 20% for at least 3…

Opinion about ALYA-T: Just went public in June. Plays into same space as CGI. Small minnow in big pond, but very smart. Built business on acquisitions. Interesting, because they're picking out smaller and mid-size, and they have a long runway.

Opinion about IQ-X: New technology officer. Early stages. Wait to see what happens.

Opinion about TIH-T: Is a lot of excitement baked into this stock and its peers, given the big building projects that will happen. The PE is too high, so would wait for a pullback. The big projects won't happen until later that some expect, he thinks.

Opinion about GRA-T: Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Momentum is solid. The fundamentals are improving along with profitability. Debt relative to cash is also improving. Market cap has reached $520M with insiders owning 10%. Not profitable yet although revenue is ramping up. Expensive but revenue growth looks good. Unlock Premium - Try 5i…

Opinion about OGI-T: (A Top Pick Jan 14/21, Up 35.1%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with OGI has triggered its stop at $3.00. We recommend covering the balance of the position at this time. When combined with the previous recommendation to cover half the position, this results in a net investment gain…

Opinion about WCN-T: This industry has its cycles. Will be more business as they expand. No comment on its valuation. Are well-positioned in the waste business, where they are a leader.

Opinion about WFG-T: (A Top Pick Oct 17/24, Down 23%) (All the past picks today were from October, when he thought we were late cycle. His view is that we've started a new cycle, so tech and consumer discretionary risk-on names should do better.)Usually a really nice trade if you buy at Halloween, sell at…

Opinion about ADN-T: Unique company in Canada that gives investors a way to own an uncorrelated infrastructure-type asset. No sawmills, just a pure play on timber land. Many institutions and pension funds would have a small part of their portfolio in it. Pays a dividend.

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Opinion about CAE-T: Broke resistance from 2021, and that's great to see. Breakouts are great -- they mean that all the sellers around the breakout point are gone. Now stock can move on to newer highs, which it's doing. Good-looking chart.

Opinion about MTL-T: Grown by acquisition quite steadily over the years. Very good company and it won't hurt you, but he owns TFII instead.

Opinion about IFP-T: The lumber industry in Canada has been in the line of sight for tariffs for the past decade. Housing prices have depressed the price of lumber for the past 2 to 3 years. One he likes in this sector is Doman Building Materials which is more of a processor of lumber. It…

Opinion about WEF-T: Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research WEF has rallied with interest rates, which help the sector, but is still down 26% for the year and 37% over 52 weeks. Note the dividend was cancelled in November 2023 and none is paid currently. This week WEF announced it would…

Opinion about MG-T: Very hesitant. Recent recovery has been sharp and quick, almost as though it's factoring in abolition of tariffs completely. We need more clarity on tariffs. Auto industry is highly cyclical and depends on health of the economy, and we're seeing signs of weakening.If you own it, don't need the cash, and have…

Opinion about AC-T: He got rid of it due to the choppy chart. Airlines are labour-intensive, subject to strikes, have high fuel costs, sensitive to the economy. Chart's showing it's neither here nor there. If it broke a bit below where it is now, as part of a longer-term downtrend, could easily see $10 range and…

Opinion about IPCO-T: Also a Lundin Group company. Consistent in buying back shares. Stock's substantially undervalued. Heavy oil producer. Potential beneficiary of de-bottlenecking Keystone. No dividend. (Analysts’ price target is $20.27)

Opinion about CVE-T: Going to be lots of consolidation in the space, which has really good tailwinds. For the first time in many years, federal government is really intent on getting resources offshore. LNG Canada, despite delays, is up and operating.Cheap relative to group. Higher debt profile, but company aims to get it in line…

Opinion about BIR-T: He lkes the size of the company but it has leverage issues. Could be a beneficiary of consolidation in the U.S. He wants to see long term past success of management. 

Opinion about PD-T: (A Top Pick May 23/24, Down 37%) He sold this around $90. It's tied to the fall in oil prices as drilling activity slides. Shares are at a 28% free cash flow yield, but he isn't confident about that figure. Revisit this in maybe 6 months after the market absorbs OPEC oversupply.

Opinion about KEY-T: Bought at $25. Sees it going further. Likes it. Pays attention to its balance sheet and grows its cashflows. Some are concerned about % of revenues from marketing business. But with the Plains acquisition, marketing exposure is hedged. Very solid management, good growth opportunities. Hold, with no problem buying here.

Opinion about PSD-T: Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research Market cap is $180M, after a 61% gain this year so far. No analyst coverage. Dividend 1.96% with a 17% bump in April and semi-regular special dividends. Price/earnings 13X. No debt and $14M cash. Good cash flow. A big jump in last…

Opinion about ENB-T: He's been cautious on the pipes. The pipeline ETF in the US is hitting RSI new lows for the year, as are a lot of the pipes in Canada (including the best-performing one, ENB). Price chart looks fine, relative strength is weak. Fine for the yield.People looking at long-life, more-utility-type assets are…

Opinion about TRP-T: (A Top Pick Sep 05/24, Up 40%) This market will make anyone look good 🙂  One of the largest pipelines in NA, focused on natural gas. Strong future, as access to overseas markets will allow those markets to reduce reliance on coal, for example. We still need to source power when the…

Opinion about SVM-T: Part of syndicate that brought company to markets. Financials in China a little opaque, but company has been generous to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. Would recommend buying. 

Opinion about CCE-X: This company has been around for 20 years on the Venture exchange. It has no revenues and has a couple of properties, one in Quebec and the other in BC. I questions how many investors have made money on this. He has no interest in this one.

Opinion about ABX-T: Has lagged peers forever, now starting to get noticed. Started picking up and breaking out. Next resistance is ~$50-55. Looks incredible technically. Yield is 1.75%. (Analysts’ price target is $46.55)

Opinion about K-T: Investment has doubled, sell? Trades at 10-15% discount to peers, so there's re-rating upside. High geopolitical risk until sold Russian assets in 2022. Now 80% North/South America focus. Has become more consistent with operational beats over last 2 years, and eliminated almost $2B of debt. FCF yield is over 10%. Great assets in…

Opinion about RUS-T: Decent dividend. Valuation's pretty attractive. Likes that it's been around a long time and has seen multiple recessions. Cut dividend 20 years ago and never forgave themselves because of how the stock reacted. Doesn't take on a lot of material risk, just a refabricator and turns over inventory quickly. Steel prices may…

Opinion about NOA-T: A cheap play in the space. See his Top Picks.

Opinion about SOLG-T: Does not own shares, but thinks deposits are very good. Would recommend waiting to see if assets are able to produce economically. Also, hard area to produce with geopolitical risk. Regional politics also troublesome. 

Opinion about TMQ-N: Be cautious of very long timelines. Extremely high-grade copper deposit. Political winds are against it, as US government denied funding for access roads. First Nations are solidly in favour of the project. Own it for the extremely high potential value.

Opinion about LIO-X: Fiji is an interesting place. They have raised $85 Million last year when it was tough. If they get this thing going it will build up confidence. They are putting a relatively small scale gold mine into production while doing exploration. They should eventually get bought out.

Opinion about GFG-X: Some of the people behind Gold Standard Ventures, are behind this one as well. If you follow success in this industry, you will do relatively well. They raised a lot of money for Gold Standard Ventures and it has done well. It is probably in the 8th-9th inning before it gets bought…

Opinion about AEM-T: Owns this in his firm's Canadian portfolio, with about a 4.5% position, which is about 40% of the weighting of gold in the TSX. His firm doesn't feel comfortable owning a full weighting in a commodity like gold. It's certainly kept up over the last 1-2 years but, over the very long…

Opinion about DPM-T: Dundee is nowhere as large as Barrick, Franco Nevada or Agnico Eagle, which comprise a third of the Canadian materials sector, but it has outperformed it so far in 2024. Dundee shares have rallied 8.5% in this time period while Barrick is down over 16%. Also, Dundee holds more potential upside. Consensus…

Opinion about CGX-T: Worth keeping? Well managed. With NFLX, video on demand, and the changing landscape of movies, it's not the same company it used to be. Could be more assets to divest, and could capitalize on real estate. Still, not sure what next move is. Look to exit.As to what to move to, though…

Opinion about QSR-T: She's nervous about the consumer, particularly in Canada. Highly indebted consumer is being more cautious on discretionary spending. If it were just Tim's, she'd be OK with it because she likes the trade-down economics. Burger King is still closing stores, lots of competition and margin pressure.

Opinion about BPF.UN-T: Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research BPF.UN is a small company, and may not be a 'blue chip' large company such as FTS. However, it just raised its distribution, is cheap, pays a 6.57% yield and has good management. We would be OK owning it for a small…

Opinion about CSW.A-T: Ace Beverage acquisition got him interested. Some really nice growth coming, but not all segments are growing. So it's not going to give him the consistent 10-15% growth rate of a great company. Last quarter showed 9%.

Opinion about CSW.B-T: He doesn’t know the seasonality on this, but the technicals show that it has been in an upward trend for quite a period of time. During the last little while, it has been in a trading range between around $19 and $22. It is not unusual for a lot of stocks in…

Opinion about CTC-T: Owns ATD instead. They just announced a strategic loyalty rewards with Tim Horton's, a big step. They beat estimates last earnings. Have a growing loyalty ecosystem, but is concerned with big ticket items and the effect of tariffs. Sees 6% upside.

Opinion about CTC.A-T: Well diversified. 200-day MA continues to push higher, with stock price above that (but has fallen to meet the 200-day with the Q2 miss). Cautious tone on health of Canadian consumer and economy, with our unemployment up. E-commerce and discount competition.He prefers DOL.

Opinion about MTY-T: Used to be a good "compounder" (~20% annually). However, growth has slowed to around 10%. Is watching, but not investing at this time. 

Opinion about VCM-T: It is a well run company. He got out of it. They paid out a lot of special dividends and the stock did well, but he got out because most of the catalysts are out of it.

Opinion about Y-T: (A Top Pick Nov 22/18, Up 12%)Convertible 8% 2022 bonds He owned the Yellow senior bonds, but then moved into these convertibles. Most of their revenues are in digital, but that has struggled. New management has cut costs a lot until free cash flow now stands around $100 million this year. Their…

Opinion about TVA.B-T: A cash cow, owning many TV channels and make movies. But shares are down, because it's a small cap and there's pressure on TV ad revenues. Still cheap. Quebecor owns 70% and could easily privatize it around $5-6, which he thinks will happen one day. Generates a lot of cash. For patient…

Opinion about MBX-T: Very positive on the stock price, the company, and the partnerships they're announcing. Technicals indicate the stock may head toward 90 cents, but he says higher. Just won a contract from the Ontario government. Covid testing isn't going away. Sales should triple in the next 12 months.